Bold Predictions

I'm going to take the bold step of predicting the path of health care reform in the United States. I know what you're thinking, "Denis, you're too young and no one can predict what the great moral crusaders in Washington are going to do to save us, and even if someone could it would be a true Merlin of public policy equipped with a plethora of Phd's and the long white beard of socially accepted wisdom." I'll grant you that, if i had a long white beard i would feel more comfortable making predictions.
But here we go just the same. Today the House of Representatives passed a bill entitled HR 3692 with an overwhelming majority (220-215) no make that a 5 man landslide! HR 3692 is a 1000 page epic that depending on who you listen to either raises your taxes or removes benefits from seniors or limits the autonomy of the insurance conglomerates or turns the United States into the People's Republic of the Red White and Blue or makes everything you ever wanted free while making all of the problems currently associated with medical care disappear in a dramatic "poof" ... it might be all or none of these, and at least a few pages of the bill may or may not include the much debated "public option".
What they voted on today doesn't really matter. Here's what will happen next. The Senate will pass a bill that also may or may not have something in it related to medical care but it will be nothing like the bill passed in the house. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it will be shorter and not include the "public option" and there will be a clause that says all the senators get jobs consulting for insurance companies if they ever lose an election. Then the President will scold all of them and tell them that they really need to have a consensus for the "good of the American people". The legislature will spend a bunch of time on local TV talking about how they really want change (people like that word) and it's the other guy's fault that the bill has not already passed and you have not yet received your personal MRI machine. Then they will go back to Washington and pass a bill that keeps the Senator's get jobs clause, adds in a amendment that says everyone must mail $1 to the CEO of Humana, raises your taxes and says something vague about a tax break for people who have to pay for their own insurance, but to get the tax break you will have to spend $10,000 per year on medical expenses and earn less than $50,000 in household income (those numbers might be pie in the sky, but i bet they're close).President Obama will go on TV and say that the legislators are the greatest Americans in history for fighting a courageous battle to maintain the status quo and there will be some vague promises about the improvements being phased in over the next 5 years. You will either feel enraged or apathetic as a result and a bunch of republicans will be elected in 2010 as a result of the ensuing passion/lack of passion.
If all that is too much for you i'll break it down: elected officials will pretend to have ideological argument about entitlements and responsibilities, the president will step in, a bill will be signed into law that will not positively effect you in anyway, rich insurance execs and lobbyists will dine on endangered species flame broiled over burning $100 bills, elected officials will claim victory/demonize the other party in order to collect votes for next time. Oh, and you will watch and listen to all of it for months.
Meanwhile ......................................over here, there will be 40,000 more young Americans sent to fight in Afghanistan, there will be a war in Yemen, a debt crisis in Africa, tensions in South America, tensions in the occupied west bank and a crisis with Iran's desire to be a self determining nation state that can decide as it wishes to power itself with out buying their fuel from a NATO country, a domestic financial system that is about to collapse, record unemployment stagnating wages and decreased domestic production. SO remember, while your government is off sticking its nose where it does not belong we need you to go ahead and just watch as the democratically elected legislature ignores to will of the people who elected them, please focus on Health Care. Thank you.